Here at One Network Wellington Live, we’re diving into a story that’s got folks talking across the Kapiti Coast. Imagine this: I’m sitting down with someone well-known, though I won’t spill the beans on who they are just yet. We’re chatting about the Kapiti Council, led by Mayor Janet Holborow, and their $5 million splurge on climate change plans that many now call a big mistake. Specifically, it’s about something called “managed retreat,” a fancy term for moving people out of their homes because of rising sea levels. The catch? The data they’ve used to scare everyone has been shown to be dodgy. So, what’s really going on? Let’s break it down simply and figure out why this has turned into such a mess.

First off, the council has spent $5 million over recent years looking at this managed retreat idea. They reckon that by 2050, sea levels might rise so much that entire coastal communities need to pack up and leave. That’s a scary thought for anyone living near the beach. However, the plan hinges on climate change predictions that experts have since picked apart. The council hired a group called the Coastal Advisory Panel, or CAP, to dig into this. For two years, this panel—handpicked by Mayor Holborow—worked on a report. They came back with options like building sea walls or shifting people inland. But here’s the kicker: the data they leaned on, from a report by Jacobs New Zealand Ltd, has been labelled as extreme and unreliable by critics.

Now, let’s talk about that data for a minute. The Jacobs Report used something called the RCP8.5 model, which predicts a massive sea level rise. Sounds alarming, right? But even the big shots at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have said this model is over-the-top and not likely to happen. Coastal Ratepayers United, a local group with 500 members, got their own scientist to check it out. Their verdict? Sea level rise won’t be a major headache for Kapiti anytime soon—certainly not in the next 20 years. Instead of panicking, they say, just keep an eye on it. Measure the sea levels regularly and act if something changes. Simple, sensible stuff.

So, why’s the council sticking to this $5 million scare story? Well, my mystery guest reckons it’s because they’re too dug in to back out. They’ve spent all this cash—ratepayers’ money, mind you—and admitting it was a waste would be a tough pill to swallow. The CAP report even showed that for every dollar spent on managed retreat, the benefits would be less than one cent. That’s a shocking return. My friend calls it “premature evacuation,” and honestly, it’s hard to argue with that. The numbers just don’t add up. Yet, the council keeps pushing forward, almost like they can’t let go of the idea.

Mayor Janet Holborow’s role in all this is front and centre. She’s the one steering the ship, and she’s standing for re-election soon. Back in 2019, she kicked off the CAP project after some court battles and community grumbles. The idea was to get locals involved, but here’s where it gets murky. The panel was meant to be the voice of the people—a kind of citizen-led effort. Instead, Holborow picked the members herself. Critics say they weren’t given enough time to think things through properly. Worse, many didn’t have the skills to challenge the shaky science. So, rather than a fair debate, it feels like the Mayor got a group to back her big plan.

And what’s that plan done so far? Well, it’s stirred up a right mess. People are worried sick about their homes. If the council labels an area a “hazard zone” based on this faulty data, insurance companies might jack up rates or even refuse to cover properties. Banks could stop lending too, since they need insured homes for mortgages. Coastal Ratepayers United reckon this could tank property values across Kapiti. Higher rates, higher insurance, and a whole lot of confusion—that’s what’s on the horizon if this goes ahead. Residents are fuming, and groups like Kapiti C.A.L.M. are shouting from the rooftops to scrap the whole thing.

Let’s rewind a bit to see how we got here. Back in 2012, the council tried sticking erosion warnings on property records, known as LIMs. Locals fought back hard, taking it to court twice. They argued the science was off, and guess what? An independent review later agreed, forcing the council to ditch those warnings. Fast forward to 2021, and Holborow’s team decided to try again. They launched this $5 million project to map out climate risks, leaning on that same questionable Jacobs Report. Protesters hit the streets in June 2024 when the CAP report landed, begging the council to toss it out. Despite the noise, the council received it anyway, though they insist no final decisions are made yet.

But here’s the rub: the council’s not budging. Even after spending $4 million by mid-2024, with costs still climbing, they’re acting like it’s business as usual. Mayor Holborow says it’s about planning for the future, and she’s thanked the CAP for their work. She admits coastal adaptation is tricky, with no single truth about what’ll happen. Fair enough, but when the data’s been debunked, why keep ploughing ahead? My guest reckons it’s pride—or maybe stubbornness. The council’s so invested in this narrative of catastrophic sea level rise that turning back feels impossible.

Meanwhile, the community’s had enough. At a council meeting in June 2024, folks like Salima Padamsey from Coastal Ratepayers United stood up and called it like it is. She said the report’s full of holes—bad science, poor engagement, and no legal weight. Another resident, Ian Harrison, who knows a thing or two about climate economics, argued there’s no need for managed retreat this century. He’s lived on Waikanae Beach for years and says the coast’s holding steady. Even a tide gauge in Wellington, running for over 100 years, shows a rise of just 1-2mm a year. Hardly the flood of doom the council’s painting.

So, what’s the fallout if Kapiti sticks with this? Chaos, plain and simple. Insurance premiums could skyrocket, leaving homeowners stuck. Rates might jump to cover more studies or seawall repairs—stuff already in the council’s 2024-34 plan. And for what? A problem that might not even hit for decades, if ever. The smart move, says my guest, is to ditch the scare tactics. Watch the sea levels, sure, but don’t blow millions on a shaky guess. The Coastal Ratepayers Union agrees—get proper science, not this cherry-picked nonsense, and focus on practical fixes like better drainage or small sea walls if needed.

As we wrap up, I ask my mystery friend one last thing: is Kapiti doomed if this goes ahead? They laugh, but it’s a grim one. “Disastrous and stupid,” they say. The council’s betting big on a bad hand, and ratepayers will foot the bill. Mayor Holborow’s got a choice—stick to her guns and risk a revolt, or admit the mistake and pivot. With elections looming, the pressure’s on. For now, though, the $5 million saga rolls on, leaving Kapiti folk anxious and angry. Here at One Network Wellington Live, we’ll keep watching. Because if there’s one thing clear as day, it’s this: faulty data and stubborn leaders make a rotten mix. Let’s hope common sense wins out before the tide—real or imagined—takes us all under.