After a year of rapid reforms and political momentum, the National-led coalition is entering a more delicate phase. National, ACT, and New Zealand First began their partnership with confidence and urgency, moving quickly on regulation, spending cuts, and restructuring major public systems. But as the pace of change continues, so does the pressure — and Wellington is watching closely to see whether unity will hold through the 2026 election.

When the coalition was formed, each party secured space to champion its priorities. National took charge of the economic rebuild, ACT positioned itself as the driver of regulatory overhaul, and New Zealand First claimed influence in foreign affairs and government accountability. The structure gave the government a clear sense of order, and for much of the past year, it worked.

However, the first signs of tension are now harder to ignore. Disagreements have surfaced on policy direction, political tone, and the boundaries of the “agree to disagree” clause built into the coalition agreement. ACT has pushed hard on issues such as Treaty principles and public service reform, while New Zealand First has taken firm stands on national identity and government spending. These positions are central to their brands, but they also test the limits of compromise.

The Treaty Principles debate has been one of the most visible flashpoints. While ACT argues for clarity around the role of the Treaty in modern governance, the issue has stirred deep public division and created unease within parts of the coalition. National, focused on stability and broad appeal, must walk a careful line between its partners’ expectations and the wider electorate’s mood. New Zealand First, known for its assertive stance on constitutional matters, adds another layer of complexity to the discussion.

Political pressure is also coming from outside the Beehive. Polling over the past year has shown shifts in support across the three parties, altering the balance of influence within the coalition. Rising support for New Zealand First has strengthened its hand, while the softness in National and ACT’s numbers has raised questions about how power will be shared heading into 2026. These trends matter because coalition partners often reassess their strategies when public opinion changes direction.

Still, despite ideological differences and the natural friction of shared governance, the coalition continues to function. On economic policy, all three parties remain aligned: lower costs, leaner government, and faster decision-making. These shared goals have allowed the partners to advance major reforms, even when disagreements simmer beneath the surface.

The challenge now is timing. Big, structural changes are easier to push through in the first year of government. The second year is the real test, when political pressure intensifies, public patience narrows, and parties begin to glance toward the next campaign. Unity becomes harder just as it becomes more important.

For the coalition to stay intact through 2026, trust and discipline will matter as much as policy. National must manage its leadership role without overshadowing its partners. ACT must champion its reforms without stretching the relationship too far. And New Zealand First will need to decide whether cooperation or confrontation offers it the strongest path into the next election.

For Wellingtonians, who feel every shift in government behaviour more sharply than most, the coalition’s stability is critical. A steady partnership could bring consistency across the public sector, infrastructure planning, and economic management. A fractured one could deliver uncertainty at a time when households and businesses are already under pressure.

The coalition has survived its first year with momentum, but the harder part lies ahead. Whether unity holds will shape not just the next election — but the direction of the country itself.